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Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Daily FX Report

The euro closed out the worst quarter in its 15-year history on Tuesday, slammed by monetary policy changes and worries about Greece, while U.S. stocks retreated a day after posting big gains.The euro skidded 11 percent against the dollar in the first quarter reflecting investors' expectations of divergent monetary policies.



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AUD/USD: Aussie Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7593, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7554. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7669, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7705.



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EUR/USD: Euro Trading Higher Ahead Of The Euro-Zone's Manufacturing PMI Data

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0716, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0653. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0838, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0897.



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GBP/USD: Britain's 4Q GDP Revised Up

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4789, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4713. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4907, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4949.



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USD/JPY: Japanese Yen Extends Its Previous Session Gains In The Asian Session

The pair is expected to find support at 119.21, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 118.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 120.11, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 120.66.



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USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading On A Stronger Footing Ahead Of Switzerland's SVME PMI Data

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9663, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9627. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9746, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9793.



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USD/CAD: Canada's Economy Contracted To Start 2015

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2606, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2557. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2745, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2834.



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Asian Market Update: China Manufacturing PMIs Edge Higher, Japan Tankan Anemic As CapEx Falls

Asian indices are mixed, as markets in China respond to a surprise expansion in manufacturing PMI, while Tokyo succumbed to a disappointing quarterly Tankan. China released PMI figure that showed manufacturing return to expansion after two months of contraction. Output component saw the biggest increase, as the slide in new



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Thin Markets + Lots Of Economic Data = Volatility In Asia

It has been a very interesting session in Asia as thin conditions and lots of economic data played havoc with the FX market. NZDUSD was hit early on by the thin conditions and some rumours that the RBNZ may have played in the market in March, with the pair plummeting



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Does GBPAUD Have The Legs To Test 2.000 Again?

GBPAUD bounced off the base of its long-term upward channel, supported by strong UK economic data and widespread aussie weakness. This resulted in a strong rally in GBPAUD and the pair is now flirting with a resistance zone around 1.9500. A break here could be enough to push the pair



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USDCAD - Sets To Extend Weakness

USDCAD The pair halted its strength to close slightly higher on Tuesday, leaving risk of a move lower on the cards. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 1.2750 level followed by the 1.2800 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.2850 level where a turn lower



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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

THE EURO closed lower on Tuesday but remains above the 20day moving average crossing. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm.



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Market Morning Briefing

Most markets are going to trade thin this week and not much movement is likely until the big data release NFP, on Friday. Dollar see-sawed yesterday rising initially and dipping later. The supports on Euro (1.065), Pound (1.4792) and Yen (120.50) mentioned yesterday, have held well. Only Aussie's expected



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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 0.7559 might extend. With 0.7912 resistance intact, downside breakout is favored. Break of 0.7559 will extend the larger down trend to next fibonacci level at 0.7182. However, decisive break of 0.7912 will indicate near term reversal, on bullish



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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. More sideway trading could be seen in range of 1.2406/2834. with 1.2406 support intact, recent up trend is expected to resume later. Above 1.2834 will target 1.3063 key resistance. However, decisive break of 1.2406 will indicate trend reversal and in



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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 1.0461 might extend but in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.1096. The larger down trend is expected to resume later. Break of 1.0461 will target next fibonacci level at 1.0283. Nonetheless, decisive break of 1.1096



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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. More consolidation could be seen above 1.4634 with risk of another recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.5551, 38.2% retracement of 1.7190 to 1.4634 at 1.5610, and bring down trend resumption. Below 1.4634 will extend the fall from 1.7190 towards 1.4229 support next.



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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Pull back from 1.0127 could have completed at 0.9490 after being supported above 38.2% retracement of 0.8346 to 1.0127 at 0.9447. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 1.0127 resistance first. Nonetheless, below 0.9490 will likely extend the fall from 1.0127 to 61.8% retracement at 0.9026.



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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. The consolidation pattern from 121.81 might still extend with risk of another fall. Below 118.32 will target lower end of recent range of 115.55/121.84. Again, we'd expect strong support from 115.55 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 105.19 to 121.84 at 115.47)



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Daily Report: Nikkei Tumbles, Yen Recovers after Soft Tankan

The Japanese Nikkei tumbles for another day while yen recovers against dollar after a relatively soft Tankan report. Nikkei breached 19000 handle today to as low as 18928 so far and is down nearly -0.9% at the time of writing. That compares to 19746 high made just last week. The



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Q1 WRAP: Race To The Bottom Appears Far From Over

Q1 has seen Central Banks the world over reduce interest rates in a 'race to the bottom'. USD Continues it most bullish rally in decades as the markets anticipate a miniscule rate increase by FED. Stronger USD has cuased downwards pressure on Commodities, which themselves are within a secular bear



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AUD/USD – Hoping For Support At 0.7550

For the last week or so now the Australian dollar has fallen away sharply to down below the key 0.77 level and further to some short term support around 0.76. Its next obvious support level is down at 0.7550 and it will hoping to be propped up by it. Its



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Australia 200 – Looking For Ongoing Support From Key 5800 Level

A couple of weeks ago the Australia 200 index pushed higher to a multi-year high to just above the key resistance level at 6000, before easing lower throughout last week to below 5900. It now has its eyes firmly on the ongoing support level at 5800 where it is hoping



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EURJPY: Supporting The Cause

The North American trading day ended on a sour note as US equities attempted to climb in to the green in the second half of trade, but fell faster toward the end of the day than at any other time. The approximate 1% drop in both the Dow and S&P



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Market Mythbusting: The 'Strong' Correlation Between USD And US Stocks

In many regards, it seems like some traders think they have their own version of magical shoes: as long as they repeat a mantra enough times, it will become true. One dubious trading theory that is currently seeing its day in the sun is that the US dollar and US



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AUDNZD: ABC Parity?

The first half of North American trade has been a mixed bag of tricks for traders so far as usual correlations aren’t behaving so well. While the EUR/USD has fallen lower on renewed concerns about Greece, but the typically correlated GBP/USD made a valiant run above the 1.48 level that



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China Builds $6 Million Bridge To Nowhere

As Beijing gets set to expand its global footprint via the launch of multinational institutions like the AIIB which are aimed squarely at disrupting the post-World War II economic order and shaking up a system that’s been underpinned by the notion of dollar hegemony for decades, it’s important that China keep up the momentum when it comes to besting the US wherever and whenever it can. Presumably that’s why the country sunk nearly $6 million and 12 months of work into building the world’s longest glass bridge that leads absolutely nowhere. The key point, apparently, is that the structure is a whopping 5 meters longer than its US competitor.


Via China.org



Workers are finishing the construction of a glass cantilever bridge in Longgang scenic area in Yunyang, Southwest China's Chongqing municipality. The transparent structure, 718 meters above the ground, has a cantilever extending 26.68 meters from the edge, five meters longer than the Grand Canyon Skywalk. The project, with a total investment of 35 million yuan($5.6 million), started in March 2014. The bridge has a carrying capacity of 1000 tons. [Photo/China News Service]












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EM Rundown: TRYing To Get The Lights Back On In Turkey

It's been a relatively quiet start to what could be a very interesting week in the FX market. While many traders are already looking ahead to a long holiday weekend, there is one big fly in the Easter Ham ointment: Friday's non-farm payroll report. Major European banks and even the



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Buffet, Grexit And The Aussie

Similarly, the market really is sick of reading the same headlines around Greece, but like the name Warren Buffet, it keeps us clicking. It's gotten to the point where they are treated as entertainment rather than market sensitive news. Keep that in mind when you see a headline with Greece



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World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low

From Gavekal Capital Blog


World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low


It's become a running theme, at least since last September, but the latest release of CPI numbers from around the world has brought our simple average World CPI proxy to its lowest level since the financial crisis. For the period ending in February, our World CPI proxy hit just 1.01% year-over-year. This is the lowest rate of change since November 2009. The year-over-year rate in our World CPI proxy has been falling for six months straight.



Oil has undoubtedly dragged down the headline CPI for many countries around the world. However, our World CPI proxy has the highest correlation (0.78) to the Citi Inflation Surprise Index which is near its lowest levels ever. 14 of the 33 countries that we track currently have a year-over-year change in consumer prices at or below 0%.




Our World PPI proxy bounced back slightly in February but still remains squarely in negative territory year-over-year (-2.43%).















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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9635

As the greenback has eased after intra-day rise to 0.9756, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.9655-65 cannot be ruled out, however, as early breach of indicated resistance at 0.9693-95 adds credence to our view that temporary low has possibly been formed at 0.9491 last week, reckon



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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Exit short entered at 1.4840

As the British pound has rebounded after holding above yesterday's low at 1.4753 in part due to cross-buying in sterling, suggesting near term upside risk is for a stronger rebound to 1.4875-80 and possibly towards 1.4900, however, still reckon resistance at 1.4922 would limit upside and price should falter well



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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.0840

As the single currency has recovered after intra-day selloff to 1.0713, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and although recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0785) cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.0845-50 would cap upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.0713 would extend the



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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Stand aside

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 120.36 (exactly 1.236 times projection of 118.33-119.49 measuring from 118.93), suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback towards previous resistance at 119.49 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 119.16) would hold and bring another



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US Consumer Confidence Rebounds in March

The Conference Board's measure of US consumer confidence rose by 2.5 points to 101.3 in March 2015, partially retracing a revised 5.0 point decline to 98.8 in February (previously reported as 96.4). The monthly improvement, which was in contrast to market expectations for an unchanged reading, brought the measure only



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Canadian January GDP Drops in the Month

January 2015 GDP dropped by 0.1% in the month, which only partially retraced the unrevised 0.3% gain in December 2014. Market expectations had been for a slightly larger 0.2% drop in the month. Expectations of a decline in January were largely premised on earlier reports indicating sizeable declines in key service-producing



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USD/CAD Loonie Recovers After Narrow Miss on Canadian GDP

The Canadian economy surprised to the upside after the gross domestic product in January was reported to have shrunk 0.1 percent versus the expected 0.2 percent contraction. Prior to the release the USD/CAD was trading at 1.2776. With oil prices continuing their downward spiral the GDP figure was able to



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US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has remained under pressure on dollar's broad-based strength in part due to solid US data, bids at 1.0730 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.0700 (stops below), more buying interest is tipped at 1.0660-70 and 1.0630-40, fresh demand should emerge around 1.0610-15 with



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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Sell at 0.7300

As the single currency has slipped again after faltering below resistance at 0.7342, retaining our view that further consolidation below last week's high of 0.7385 would be seen with mild downside bias for weakness to 0.7225-30, however, a firm break below there is needed to add credence to our count



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