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Friday, February 28, 2014

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

Much volatility was seen in EUR/GBP last week as the price actions were rather indecisive. But after all, it's still holding on to 0.8164 key support level and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first. We'd still expect strong support from 0.8164 to bring reversal. Above 0.8286



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EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF dropped sharply last week to as low as 1.2132, just inch above 1.2127 support. The break of 1.2165 confirmed resumption of whole decline from 1.2649. Intraday bias remains on the downside this week for further decline. Break of 1.2127 will pave the way to 1.21 handle and below. But



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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

As we expected, Q4 GDP growth was revised to a still respectable 2.4 percent from the initial reading of 3.2 percent. The BEA had underestimated December's widening of the trade deficit. In addition, the build in inventories was not nearly as large as previously thought and consumer spending took a



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The Weekly Bottom Line

Reading the economic tea leaves has become challenging of late. Poor weather has softened economic data, and revisions have turned positive readings significantly less so. After the BEA's second estimate for fourth quarter growth, the economy grew by 1.9% in 2013. It was a bit of a wild ride. The



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Inflation, the ECB and the EUR

The flash reading of Eurozone CPI grabbed the headlines on Friday, after it inched up to 0.8% from 0.7%. The bigger surprise came from core price data, which rose to 1% YoY from 0.8% last month. Looking at the details, German, Italian and Spanish prices all fell this month, which



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Precious Metals Down as US Equities Climb to Fresh Highs

Yesterday, both gold and silver managed to close well off their lows as the dollar sold off while the situation in Ukraine worsened. Although the greenback has extended its losses today in the aftermath of a large revision in US fourth quarter GDP, precious metals have so far failed to



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GBPAUD Nearing Key 1.8780/85 Level, Break above Targets ~1.9085

GBPAUD has resumed the trend higher earlier today after it took out last week's high around 1.8655. Currently, it is approaching the key 1.8780/85 level, which sees the convergence of the 61.8% retracement (1/24-2/12 decline) & key lows from the end of January, and should this give way it could



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USD/ZAR Pullback Continues, but Potential for Bullish Breakout Growing

The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to lend a risk-off tone to markets ahead of the weekend, but thus far, the impact appears to be geographically contained to Europe. If the situation in Crimea deteriorates further over the weekend however, traders will start to wonder whether the selling



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Week in FX Americas - The Loonie's Flight of Fancy

USD/CAD bulls have been cocksure of themselves this year. Being long dollars against the commodity and interest rate sensitive currency has been many speculators' go-to profitable trade for 2014. These positions have been helped along by dovish rhetoric from Canada's minister of finance and by the Bank of Canada's governor



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Week in FX Asia - PBoC Takes a Run at the Carry Trade

For many months, the market has been talking up the Chinese yuan with many speculators believing that the psychological six handle was going to be breached sometime soon, as in the first half of this year. It seems that policymakers at the People's Bank of China (PBoC) have different ideas.



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03/02/2014 - A Bad Month for the Buck

* A Bad Month for the Buck

* Inflation, the ECB and the EUR

* Market Movers: Weekly Technical Outlook

* Look Ahead: Stocks

* Look Ahead: Commodities

* Data Highlights



The dollar lost ground to all currencies in the G10 bar the yen in February. It has been a weak start to the year for the greenback; the dollar has failed to rally against any G10 currency apart from the Canadian dollar since the start of 2014.



There were various drivers that could have weighed on the USD in February...Full text »




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Obama To Deliver Statement On Ukraine At 4:45 PM - Live Stream

Obama is scheduled to speak on the Ukraine 4:45pm. He may not even be half an hour last this time. And while we are waiting, we just got this:



  • U.S. BELIEVES GROUND TROUPS IN CRIMEA ARE INDEED RUSSIAN: CNN


Perhaps this confirms there are no Russian troops on the ground after all.


Well that was quick:



  • OBAMA SAYS ‘DEEPLY CONCERNED’ BY RUSSIAN MILITARY MOVEMENTS

  • OBAMA SAYS "THERE WILL BE COSTS" FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION IN UKRAINE

  • OBAMA SAYS "UKRAINE PEOPLE DESERVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DETERMINE THEIR OWN FUTURE"

  • OBAMA SAYS HE COMMENDS RESTRAINT OF UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT

  • OBAMA SAYS BIDEN HAS SPOKEN WITH PRIME MINISTER OF UKRAINE

  • OBAMA SAYS U.S. SUPPORTS UKRANIAN SOVERIGNTY


And... that's it: no statement on what if anything the US will do if Russia keeps its presence there and continues piling troops and equipment.






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Stocks Close At New Record High On Russian Invasion, GDP Decline And Pending Home Sales Miss

With the Ukraine now openly appealing to the world to halt what in its own words is a Russian invasion, it only made sense that after the bigger than expected downward revision to Q4 GDP, and the miss in Pending Home Sales, that the S&P would close at a new all time high. Oh, there was that surge in the Chicago PMI which confirmed that the February weakness across all other data was not due to the weather, and which is all that the market decided to focus on.



And so once again, the fact that it was 3:30 pm at the end of the day - easily the most "fundamental" driver of stock valuation in the past five 5 years - overruled all bad news, or is it good news? It is confusing what the catalyst for stock surges any more is - is bad good news great, or is good news greater - aside from the Fed's relentless growing balance sheet of course.


We are at a loss what else to highlight here: maybe the fact that despite the sheer euphoric idiocy the Nasdaq did finally closer lower.



All one can do at this point is sit back and laugh at the complete abortion that Ben Bernanke's, and now Janet Yellen's centrally-planned "market" has become.






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And Risk Off

But... hadn't this brilliant, vacuum-tube controlled market priced in every possible Ukraine contingency? Or maybe the GDP miss wasn't bad enough?







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USD/CHF Gives Up Recent Gains

As soon as USD/CHF approached the supply area at 0.8923/16 yesterday, created by the falling resistance line, monthly S1 and several other studies, it came under strong selling pressure that forced the pair to surrender all of Wednesday's gains. Accordingly, the U.S. Dollar will probably carry on ceding ground until



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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3740

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from 1.3643, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.3643 to extend gain to 1.3740, however, price should falter well below resistance at 1.3773 and bring another decline later, below 1.3660 would bring



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Ukraine Correction In EUR/USD Short-Lived?

Yesterday, EUR/USD drifted to the mid 1.3650 area as tensions in Ukraine weighed on European assets. However, there was no follow-through price action even as German inflation surprised on the downside. The early losses were even reversed. Today, the same ingredients will spice currency trading with the focus on Ukraine



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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Stand aside

As the greenback has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest just below the lower Kumo, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the fall from 102.83 to extend weakness towards previous support at 101.39, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon downside would be limited to 101.00 and



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Yuan Extends Weakness, EUR Better Bid

The Chinese Yuan continues to be aggressively sold this Friday. The Yuan nearly hit the 1% weak limit of its trading band for the first time since July 2012. USDCNY rallied from 6.1244 to 10-month high of 6.1760 on speculations that PBoC may widen Yuan's trading band sooner than formerly



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EUR/JPY Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Although the single currency slipped yesterday, lack of follow through selling and current rebound from 138.79 suggest near term upside risk remains for rebound to 140.75-80 and possibly test of resistance at 141.27, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 142.05-10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 145.69-136.23) and resistance at



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QE Can Be Harmful For The Economy

Andrew Sentence, a formed Bank of England policymaker pointed out that central bank's asset purchases accentuated the squeeze on the population's real incomes by holding down the value of the domestic currency. Sentence was one of the MP members between 2006 and 2011. According to his view, the second and



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Swiss Economy Stumbled In Q4

Can a cap imposed by the Swiss National Bank of the domestic currency be the only panacea from all internal and external risks? It seems that strong domestic consumption cannot boost growth on its own as due to a drop in exports of pharmaceuticals, chemicals and machinery the Alpine country



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Kiwi Trade Surplus Soared On Dairy Farmers

What kind of a proof the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is looking for in order to claim the economy is on the track to prosperity? Another set of data released this week supported the case on March 12 New Zealand is poised to become the first developed country to



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Germany Surprises To The Upside, Spain Disappoints

Europe's fourth largest economy expanded mildly in the final three months of 2013, with economic output advancing only 0.2% from 0.3% in the third quarter, coming in line with analysts' expectations. On an annual basis the economy is still contracting, with the GDP dropping 0.2%, falling short of market's projections



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It Is Weather Conditions, Nothing To Be Worried About

Fundamental data over the past couple of weeks have been persistently weak, however, the Fed is blaming bad weather conditions and only, while also hinting the guidance can be revised soon. During the second part of Yellen's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, the Chairman said the central bank will



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USD/CAD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis

Despite last week's brief rise to 1.1194, the subsequent retreat formed a shooting star on the daily chart, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1067) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.1000 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A



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Thursday, February 27, 2014

Daily FX Report

The Japanese yen rose against all it's major peers overnight amid rising tensions in Ukraine which pushed markets towards traditional safehaven currencies. Data releases also showed that the rate of inflation is at a five-year high in Japan which is fueling speculation that its central bank may put stimulus programs



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Ahead Of ECB Decision: Inflation To Hold At Record Low, Jobless Rate Does Not Budge

While there is already considerable debate and speculation surrounding next week's ECB rate decision, the market's interest will only on this morning's Eurozone CPI and unemployment figures which may secure the policy adoption as it did in November.



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CHINA PMI: Is A 3rd Consecutive Decline On The Cards?

Following on from HSBC Flash PMI last week we now have the 'official' Manufacturing PMI for China tomorrow. Taking into account the 2 tend to track very closely in terms of trend and the disappointing release from Flash PMI last week, the market consensus is for a 3rd consecutive decline



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EUR/USD: Euro-Zone Clearly Not In Deflation, Says ECB President, Mario Draghi

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3653, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3604. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3739, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3776.



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GBP/USD: Pound Trading Lower Ahead Of BoE Governor, Mark Carney's Speech

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6631, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6581. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6715, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6749.



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USD/JPY: Japan's National Consumer Inflation Index Registered A 1.4% Annual Rise In January

The pair is expected to find support at 101.30, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 100.99. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 102.17, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 102.74.



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USD/CHF: Swiss GDP Rose At An Annual Rate Of 1.7% In The Fourth Quarter

The pair is expected to find support at 0.8863, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8842. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8912, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8940.



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USD/CAD: Loonie Trading Tad Lower, With Focus On Canada's GDP Data

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1107, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1086. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1155, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1182.



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AUD/USD: Aussie Trading Lower In The Morning Session

The pair is expected to find support at 0.8903, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8859. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8992, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9037.



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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 1.1223 is still in progress and below 1.1053 minor support will turn bias to the downside for another falling leg in the pattern. Break of 1.0909 will bring deeper pull back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1223 at



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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.8906 minor support intact, further rally is still mildly in favor. Decisive break of 0.9085 will be an early sign of larger trend reversal. That is the whole correction pattern from 1.1079 might have finished at 0.8659 and further rally



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Asian Market Update: Japan Inflation Remains Steady

Chinese yuan selling accelerates in the wake of comments from SAFE that the weakness is not extreme but "normal" and should not be misinterpreted; USD/CNY rises to 6.18 a 10-month high and also the biggest single-day drop in Yuan since Apr 2007. The change is also right around the



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The Daily Wave Analysis

The wave count is showing a potential for a wave 5 (black) of wave 3 (green) of wave 3 (purple). The invalidation level (brown line) is the top of wave 1 (red), but a full break below uptrend channel (blue) would reduce likelihood of clear bullish structure



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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

THE EURO closed higher on Thursday but remains below the 10day moving average. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. Closes below the



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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

EUR/USD's retreat was contained at 1.3642 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, below 1.3642 will extend the fall from 1.3722. Further break of 1.3561 support will indicate that the correction pattern from 1.3892 is starting the third leg for a new low below 1.3476. On the



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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. We'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.6251 to 1.6822 at 1.6604 to contain downside to complete the pull back from 1.6822. Above 1.6725 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6822 high. Break will extend the up



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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF is staying in tight range above 0.8852 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall is still in favor with 0.8938 minor resistance intact. But considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we'd expect strong support above 0.8799 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.8938 minor



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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

USD/JPY's decline extends today and took out 101.66 minor support. The development suggests that the corrective recovery from 100.75 has completed at 102.82 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside. The larger fall from 105.41 is resuming for 100.75 low and then 100.61 key support level. Decisive break there



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Daily Technical Analysis

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday bottomed at 1.3642 but closed higher at 1.3709. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bullish bias testing 1.3750 but key resistance remains around 1.3850. Immediate support is seen around 1.3680. A clear break below that area could trigger



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Daily Report: Renewed Selloff in Yen Crosses on Risk Aversion

Much volatility was seen in the Japanese yen overnight as initial strength was countered by return of risk appetite. DOW and S&P 500 both closed higher and lifted yen crosses for recoveries. However, renewed risk aversion in Asian session triggered another selloff in yen crosses again. Technically, EUR/JPY has already



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More Positive Japanese Data, But It May Not Be Enough

Japan's monthly data dump provided the market with a glimpse into the world's third largest economy. On the whole it appears the once struggling economy is finding its feet. During January industrial production increased at its fastest pace since 2011, retail trade and housing spending smashed expectations and core inflation



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Market Morning Briefing

Dollar-Yen (101.85) is testing the lower end of the range of 101.75-102.75. Holding 101.80-70, it may try to rally to 103.50-104 in the short term while the intermediate downtrend remains. The bearish momentum will return on a break below 101.80-101.40.



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USD INDEX: Dark Cloud Cover Reversal On Daily Chart, Below 80.56-60 Resistance Zone

Since failing to trade above the 81.50 level and selling off back down to 80.00 over the past 3 weeks the USD has failed to gain any bullish momentum in light of softer data coming out from the US and China. Trading beneath the 200 week eMA and back within



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EUR/USD – Regains Lost Ground Back Above Key Level Of 1.37

Throughout the first half of February the Euro enjoyed a solid move higher moving from support around 1.35 up to test the key level at 1.37. It was able to move through the 1.37 level before consolidating and spending the best part of the last couple of weeks resting on



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AUD/USD - Trying To Claw Back To Key 0.90 Level

Throughout the last few weeks the Australian dollar has done very little other than continue to trade around the 0.90 level. In the last few days it has fallen down sharply below this level to a support level around 0.8950 where it is presently consolidating. Earlier this month the Australian



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