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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Nonfarms Preview - Your Visual Guide

With tomorrow's consensus at 205k jobs created, this is the highest forecast since March 2012. If this comes in or above target we will see NFP at a 5-month high (unless it comes above 268k which would make it the highest since Feb 2012).



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Daily FX Report

Yesterday the Dow Jow index of shares climbed 0.3 percent and closed at its first record high of 2014. The Standard Poor’s index also rose 0.3 percent. Today due to a holiday the European stock market is closed, only the US and the UK stock exchange is open. Yesterday



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Asian Market Update: China PMI Rises For The 2nd Month

The start of Labor Day holiday weekend across much of the far east has kept market volatility to a minimum. China govt put out its official manufacturing PMI just shy of the consensus estimate. Despite the miss, the headline figure marked a 3-month high and a 2nd consecutive month of



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EUR/USD: Fed Continues Tapering Despite Soft US GDP

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3803, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3735. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3908, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3945.



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GBP/USD: UK Pound Trading Tad Higher Ahead Of A Slew Of UK Economic Releases

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6823, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6767. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6919, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6959.



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AUD/USD: Aussie Trading Higher In The Asian Session

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9259, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9228. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9338.



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USD/JPY: Central Bank Would Not Hesitate To Alter Its Policy If Risks Materialise, Says BoJ's ...

The pair is expected to find support at 101.96, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 101.67. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 102.60, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 102.96.



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USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading Marginally Higher In A Holiday-Thin Trading Session

The pair is expected to find support at 0.8777, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8754. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8838, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8876.



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USD/CAD: Canada's GDP Came In Line With Economists' Projections For February

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0948, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0924. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0989, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1006.



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GBPAUD Continues To Surge Ahead

It's been a very quiet Asia session, which isn't surprising given the lack of market moving events and the bank holiday in China. One data release early in the session had the capacity to move the market, which was China's official manufacturing PMI data for April. However, while the data



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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 173.14 will extend the second leg from 163.78 higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 174.84 to bring reversal to extend the consolidation pattern. On the downside, below 169.50 will argue that the third leg of the



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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. Price actions from 145.68 are viewed as forming a consolidation pattern with rise from 136.22 as the second leg. Break of 139.95 will revive that case that such second leg has completed. In such case, outlook will turn bearish as



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EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

With 0.8309 resistance intact, deeper decline is still in favor in EUR/GBP for 0.8157 key support. The cross is staying in medium term falling channel and decisive break of 0.8157 will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, break of 0.8309 will confirm completion of the fall from 0.8399 and



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EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Recent development is a it mixed but overall outlook stays mildly bearish with 1.2249 resistance intact. Break of 1.2140 will target 1.2103 and below. But again, in that case, we'd expect strong support below 1.21 to handle to bring rebound. Meanwhile,



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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Stand aside

Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.6847 (twice), as the British pound has retreated after faltering below Monday's high of 1.6858, retaining our view that further consolidation below this level would be seen and weakness to 1.6793 (yesterday's low) cannot be ruled out, however, break of 1.6778 support is needed to signal



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EUR/USD – Slight Gains As Eurozone CPI Meets Expectations

EUR/USD is showing some fluctuation in Wednesday's European session, as the pair reacts to the release of Eurozone and German data. The pair is currently trading in the low-1.38 range. In economic news, German retail sales slipped but unemployment numbers were strong. Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate posted a gain and



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European Market Update: Euro Zone CPI Bounces Back In Apr

Eurozone inflation numbers was awaited since it was viewed as a decisive factor in next week ECB meeting. The EUR/USD barely moved in the session ahead of the data. The headline CPI came in a touch below expectations. However, Euro recovers initial losses after CPI data as it seemed to



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Australia - Still Bullish?

The Aussie Dollar hit a 5 month high of 0.94599 against the US Dollar on 11th April but has since slid more than 2 cents. Recent economic data points to underlying weakness in the Australian economy, but is there a reason to still be bullish? Technical analysis suggests there might be.



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Ambiguity In Fed's Message Keep USD And US Yields Ranged

Markets remain cautions heading into the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later. Stronger corporate earnings in the US gave yesterday's US session a boost but there has been no real follow- through in Asia or Europe. The BoJ reiterated its standing policy stance overnight, with little impact on JPY as



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Dollar/Yen Firm After BoJ Rates Remain Unchanged

On Tuesday Dollar/Yen increased with 30 pips. The currency couple appreciated from 102.46 to 102.79 yesterday, matching the positive money flow sentiment at over +11%, closing the day at 102.63. This morning the Dollar weakened against the Yen, reaching 102.27.



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European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has remained under pressure after yesterday's selloff, bids and stops at 1.3800 were tripped, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3775-95 area (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3750-60 (stops below), 1.3725 and further out at 1.3700, some bids are expected at 1.3685. On the



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Euro Sharply Up Following Eurozone Inflation Data, Fed's Meeting In Focus

Euro edged sharply higher in Europe Wednesday, after official data showed inflation across the 18-country Eurozone rose in April but not as much as had been anticipated in the markets. Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, said Wednesday that consumer prices rose by 0.7 percent in April from the year before



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No QE? Wait For A Second...

Interesting how sentiment can change over the day. First, Mario Draghi claimed that the ECB is still far from engaging in the U.S.-style bond purchases in order to bolster bloc's economic recovery and inflation. Draghi claimed that around 40 members of Germany's grand coalition can spur doubts amid investors that



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What To Expect From Fed This Week?

All meetings under Janet Yellen's leadership were dragging investors into the drowsy state. This week's meeting is also unlikely to offer any surprises, however, there are four major things you should keep in mind during the meeting. First of all, policymakers are likely to provide a fuller picture on the



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U.K. Growth Below Forecasts

The cable has been moving in a strong uptrend for the last several months. As long as the pair holds above the 1.68-mark, the outlook will remain bullish. In addition to that, technical indicators are supporting the case of further appreciation. The U.K. economy is gaining momentum and everything speaks



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Japan Should Focus On Nuclear Power

Japan's trade deficit quadrupled over the last month, while a significant drop in the Yen does not help to boost exporters' profits, but is weighing on the import costs, as the world's third largest economy is highly dependent on the energy. Earlier this month the Japanese government officially adopted a



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New Zealand Trade Surplus Widened Further

Another set of upbeat statistics was published this week, as Statistics New Zealand showed trade surplus widened further in March, as strong dairy volumes pushed exports receipts to its highest level ever.



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European Shares Little Changed Ahead Of Fed, US Growth Data

Equities markets turned mixed in early European trades as investors took profits and waited for cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that concludes later today. U.S. stock-index futures and Asian shares were also little changed.



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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold short entered at 142.20

Although the single currency rebounded to as high as 142.47 yesterday, renewed selling interest did emerge there as suggested and euro has slipped again, retaining our bearishness and a breach below indicated strong support at 140.99 would signal top is formed, bring weakness to 140.60-65. Looking ahead, only below 139.96



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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy at 0.9215

Although aussie has rebounded again after finding support at 0.9228 yesterday and consolidation above this level is in store, reckon resistance at 0.9317 (Monday's high) would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 0.9461 temporary top to bring retracement of recent rise in wave iv



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German April Unemployment Down -25K Vs. -10K Forecast

German economy continues to show signs of acceleration into the year, with unemployment falling for a fifth month, and more than twice as much as forecast in April. The Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Office brought further goods news about the Germany labor market, where the number of people out of world



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Japan Faces The Pressure

Many market watchers were disappointed by today's result which presents an unmitigated challenge for the government of Shinzo Abe. Manufacturing and Industrial production both produced weaker than expected results. The Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 compared to last month's 53.9. It was forecast to be around 53.0 so this



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Today's Market Outlook

A break above 1.3860 didn't increase trader's appetite for a continuation and found resistance during last couple of trading sessions at 1.3878. Currently we are back to the same support levels and lower border at 1.3780 and a break below there would open a downtrend towards 1.3735 and even 1.3640-70.



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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

The pair dropped yesterday and failed to remain stable above 1.3850 which is intraday negative, and stability below the referred to level keeps the negative pressure especially with the negativity of Linear Regression Indicators.



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Technical Analysis for Crosses

The pair couldn't hold long above 172.60 yesterday, offering some downside bias to test the MA 50 &100. Stochastic is attempting to regain positive momentum over four-hour basis supporting the return of the upside move. The general bullishness remains intact within the ascending channel waiting for confirmation of a breach



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Heavy G10 Calendar Today

FX markets were range-bound as Asia's regional indices were unable to take the lead from US markets. S&P was able to rally for the second consecutive day on the back of strong earnings reports. This renewed risk appetite was in spite of the growing geopolitical tensions and weak US consumer



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Forex Technical Analysis

The recent slide from 1.3878 signals, that the broad consolidation pattern below 1.3904 peak is still underway, risking another test of 1.3780 key support. Initial intraday resistance lies at 1.3840, followed by the crucial 1.3878.



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USDJPY: The BoJ Leaves Policy Unchanged, Downgrades FY2014 GDP Forecast

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) retained its plans for a 60-70trn yen annual increase in the monetary base. The move was widely expected by the market, thus the yen's reaction was fairly limited. JPY started to lose ground immediately after the BoJ's announcement, but it proved to be a textbook



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Volatility Picks Up Ahead Of The FOMC Statement

The euro (EUR) retraced from its high at 1.3878 all the way down to 1.3800 against the US dollar (USD). The single currency lost previous gains after the German inflation remained below ECB’s target adding pressure to the ECB for additional easing.



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Daily FX Analysis

There were generally weak Euro-zone indicators at the start of the European session with Spanish unemployment rising to 25.9% from a revised 25.7% as Italian retail sales fell in the latest month. The main focus, however, was on monetary and inflation data given the potential ECB policy implications. Money supply



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Spain Grows At Firm Pace In First Quarter Of 2014, Annual GDP Expands Sharply

Spain's economic recovery is gaining momentum, with national output growing by 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014 as expected – the fastest rate of growth in six years and double the increase that was recorded in the previous quarter.



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Cable Nurses Losses After Poor GDP Data

On Tuesday Pound/Dollar traded within 55 pip range. The Cable depreciated from 1.6847 to 1.6789 yesterday, in converse with the positive money flow sentiment at nearly +12%, closing the day at 1.6825. Today the British Pound is trading quietly, with movements within of yesterday's range for the time being.



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EUR/USD Plummets From 1.39

As soon as EUR/USD approached 1.39, it was immediately sold off down to the support are around 1.38, which consists of the monthly PP and 55-day SMA. And while this may potentially alleviate the downward pressure due to the zone's density, the currency pair is likely to keep moving south



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GBP/USD Stands Confused At Feb High

The Cable remains unable to realise its bullish potential implied by the technical indicators because of the tough resistance at 1.6846/14. If it is eventually overcome, there will be a good opportunity for the Sterling to revisit 1.70, where it was back in 2009. But the advancement could also carry



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USD/JPY Unable To Breach Monthly PP

USD/JPY seems to have once again failed at 102.72/56 (monthly PP and 100-day SMA), thereby calling into question the currency pair's ability to recover in the long run. Still, being that the key supports remain intact, such as the 16-month rising trend-line near 102 and 200-day SMA at 101.50, the



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Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Stand aside

Although the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally, retaining our view that the fall from 0.8862 has possibly ended at 0.8770 on Monday and near term upside risk remains for test of resistance at 0.8856 but break there is needed to signal early rise from 0.8699 low



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USD/CHF Rebounds From 0.88

Since USD/CHF closed beneath the monthly PP and 55-day SMA, it was expected to extend the losses. However, it turned around ahead of the weekly S2 at 0.8764 and decided to return to the down-trend line at 0.8850. A rally beyond this point is considered to be unlikely, also due



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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Stand aside

Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.6847 (twice), as the British pound has retreated after faltering below Monday's high of 1.6858, retaining our view that further consolidation below this level would be seen and weakness to 1.6793 (yesterday's low) cannot be ruled out, however, break of 1.6778 support is needed to signal



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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.3830

Although the single currency has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.3797 and minor consolidation is in store, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3828-30 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3879-1.3797) and bring another decline later, below said support would bring test of last week's low of 1.3785, however, break there is



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EUR/USD Longs Squeezed On Soft German Inflation

Yesterday, euro longs were wrong‐footed as German inflation rose less than expected. EUR/USD returned to the 1.38 area. Sterling held strong even as the UK GDP was marginally lower than expected. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are nearing first support levels. Will today's EMU inflation data and/or today's US eco news force



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