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Sterling found renewed buying interest at 169.35 and has rallied above previous resistance at 175.35, adding credence to our view that medium term upmove has resumed and indicated upside target at 180.00 had been met, although bullishness remains for recent upmove to extend gain towards 182.00, reckon this wave v
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Euro's near term sideways trading is expected to continue but as long as last week's low at 138.38 holds, consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for another rebound, above 139.70 would suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of resistance at 140.22 but break there is needed to signal
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As the Australian dollar has recovered after falling to 0.8684 yesterday, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and recovery to 0.8800 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8830-40 and bring another decline later, below said support at 0.8684 would signal recent decline from 0.9505 is
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The greenback found renewed buying interest at 0.9353 (we recommended to buy at 0.9300) before resuming recent upmove, indicated targets at 0.9455-56 and 0.9520-25 (2 times projection of 0.8703-0.9037 measuring from 0.8856) had been met and further gain to 0.9570 (76.4% retracement of 0.9839-0.8699), then 0.9600-10 would be seen, however,
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Although the British pound has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.6525, a daily close below support at 1.6162 is needed to signal the rebound from 1.6052 has ended there and retain bearishness for recent selloff from 1.7192 top to resume, bring weakness to 1.6100, then retest of said support at
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Dollar's retreat after yesterday's rise to 0.9532 suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.9457 support cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous resistance at 0.9433 would turn into support and contain dollar's downside, bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend recent upmove to
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For about three years, or just before the terminal Keynesian/monetarist experiment of Abenomics was launched, Japanese wages were flatlining, happily hugging the 0% Y/Y line. But that was ok, because the country had deflation or at best 0% inflation, meaning quite often real wages, adjusted for actual purchasing power, were higher than nominal wages. Then, following Abe's triumphal return after a 4 year battle with diarrhea, when he unleashed a different kind of liquidity, one impacting the BOJ's CTRL-P function, after much cajoling, threats and outright incantations, Japan's nominal wages started to slowly rise higher, and as reported earlier following the latest battery of worse than expected news out of a recessionary Japan, nominal wages in August rose by 1.4%, down from 2.4% in July, driven by overtime wages which rose 1.8% (with base wages barely eeking out a 0.6% annual rise), however also at half the Y/Y rate seen in July.
What about real wages, or wages when factoring in the soaring prices of, well, everything such as TV sets rising in price by double digits (yes, in the country that gave the world Sony), or gas and heating prices through the roof for nearly 2 years now. Sadly, here the picture is far worse. Because while the nominal wage increase is welcome, if declining, the real wage crash is quite horrifying to some 100+ million Japanese. And accelerating, because while real wages dropped -1.7% in July, in August they flat out crashed by -2.6%.
In fact, even as the great Keynesian priests of Japan distract the world by pointing out repeatedly the modest and now declining rise in nominal wages, as testament of the "success"of Abenomics, what they want everyone to ignore is what is going on with real wages.
So, without further ado, here is the difference between Nominal and Real wages, as demonstrates best by that sinking Keynesian titanic, which has already returned to recession as confirmed by the upcoming negative GDP print, Japan.
Although yesterday's breach of previous support at 1.6240 suggests early rebound from 1.6052 has ended at 1.6525 and bearishness remains for weakness to 1.6200, a break of another previous support at 1.6162 is needed to add credence to this view and extend subsequent fall to 1.6125-30 and possibly towards 1.6100
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Euro's recovery after yesterday's fall to 1.2664 has retained our view that minor consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.2715 cannot be ruled out, above there would bring retracement to 1.2745-50, however, reckon 1.2775-80 would limit upside and bring another decline. A break of said
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Dollar has retreated after resuming recent upmove to as high as 109.75 yesterday, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 109.00 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 108.80-85 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 109.75 would extend
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