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Monday, June 30, 2014

EURGBP Bears Queuing Up For The Next Leg Down?

The above chart shows Euro Futures vs GBP futures and with COTS indicators. Net Positioning displays larger trader's ratio of Long vs Short, so a number above 0 shows there is more buying than selling among large speculators Hedge funds etc. Open interest is below and used as a



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Daily FX Report

Today the most important news comes from overseas, exactly from United States and Australia. The USD was largely influenced by the bearish mood after a disappointing regional U.S. factory data was published. It raised concerns that monetary authorities might leave interest rates low for a longer period than expected. Despite



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AUD/USD: RBA Keeps Its Interest Rate Unchanged At 2.5% In July

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9390, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9362. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9444, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9470.



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EUR/USD: Euro Trading Slightly Higher Against The US Dollar Ahead Of The Euro-Zone ...

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3653, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3618. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3711, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3734.



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GBP/USD: UK Mortgage Approvals Fell For The Fourth Consecutive Month In May, Reports BoE

The pair is expected to find support at 1.7038, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6969. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.7146, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.7185.



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USD/JPY: Business Confidence Among Japanese Companies Deteriorated In The Second Quarter, ...

The pair is expected to find support at 101.31, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 101.11. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 101.62, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 101.74.



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USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Pares Its Gains Against The US Dollar In The Asian Session

The pair is expected to find support at 0.8851, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8829. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8905, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8937.



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USD/CAD: Loonie Trading A Tad Higher In A Subdued-Trading Session

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0644, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0619. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0696, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0723.



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RBA On Hold Until 1Q15‏

The RBA left the cash unchanged a 2.5% for a 10th month in June. Against the backdrop of a decline in consumer confidence since the release of the Federal Budget and sluggishness of the retail sector, Governor Glenn Steven indicated that it would be prudent to leave the monetary policy



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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

GBP/USD's rally resumed by taking out 1.7062 and reaches as high as 1.7114 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for next key long term fibonacci level at 1.7332. We'd expect loss of momentum as it approaches this level and reverse from there. On the downside, below 1.7051



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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

THE EURO closed higher on Monday and the highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this week's rally, the reaction



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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

The break of 1.3676 resistance indicates that the rebound from 1.3502 short term bottom has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.3502 at 1.3805 and above. Momentum is not strong enough to convince us that larger rally from 1.2755 is resuming. So,



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Euro/Dollar Steps Up In The New Quarter

On Monday Euro/Dollar increased with almost 60 pips. The European currency appreciated from 1.3639 to 1.3698 yesterday, matching the positive money flow sentiment at over +16%, closing the day at 1.3690. This morning the Euro is trading quietly, with movements at the upper end of yesterday's range for now.



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Asian Market Update: Japan Q2 Tankan Meets Estimates

China official manufacturing PMI hit a 6-month high, meeting consensus at 51.0. Among the more notable components, New Exports returned to expansion of 50.3 v 49.3 m/m and Employment rose to 48.6 from 48.2. HSBC final PMI remained in expansion as anticipated by recovery in the Flash data, coming in



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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF drops to as low as 0.8861 so far and intraday bias remains on the downside. As noted before, the consolidation pattern from 0.8698 is likely completed at 0.9036. Deeper fall should be seen back to 0.8698/8702 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8956 minor resistance will dampen this bearish



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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Deeper decline is expected in USD/JPY with 101.87 resistance intact. Current fall from 102.79 will target 100.65/82 key support level. The larger fall from 105.41 could be resuming and decisive break of 100.65 will confirm. More importantly, such development will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 101.87 will



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The Daily Wave Analysis

Wave 3 (purple) could be completed at higher Fibonacci targets if price breaks above resistance (orange). The other possible scenario is a retracement down to the wave 4 versus 3 Fibonacci levels where price could bounce at the 23.6% or 38.2% retracements. A break below the blue line invalidates the current wave 4 wave count.



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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

USD/CAD lost some downside momentum. But with 1.0751 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. Current fall from 1.1278 would extend towards 1.0608 key support level. At this point, we're still viewing such fall from 1.1278 as a correction. Thus, we'd expect strong support from 1.0608 to contain downside and



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Daily Technical Analysis

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.3696. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.3730 – 1.3800. Immediate support is seen around 1.3675 – 1.3650. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.



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Daily Report: Aussie Higher as RBA on Hold, Manufacturing Data Watched

Aussie strengthens mildly after RBA left rates unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. The central bank reiterated in the accompanying statement that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates." Regarding the economy, it expected growth to remain "a little below trend over



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RBA Keeps Interest Rate At 2.50%

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, adding that economic growth will be a little below trend over a period ahead. Australian monetary policy makers said they expect interest rate to remain stable for some time, while inflation is anticipated to be within 2%



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Market Morning Briefing

Dollar-Yen (101.50) may well bounce to 102.50 levels now as the current daily candle suggests. The range of 101.20-102.75 may continue for some more time. The Euro-Yen (138.94) is testing the resistance of 139 after a rally on the back of stronger Euro and a break above 139 may take it to 140.00-50 levels.



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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

AUD/USD resumes the rise from 0.9211 today and is heading back to 0.9460 key resistance. We'd stay cautious on reversal from 0.9460 to extend the near term sideway pattern. And, break of 0.9353 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9211 support and below. However, decisive break of 0.9460



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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

The strong rebound from 172.36 suggests that pull back from 174.09 is completed. And, the rise from 169.53 is still in progress. Bias is mildly on the upside for 174.09 and above. But again, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 174.84 to bring reversal. The medium term sideway from



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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

The consolidation from 137.71 is still in progress and intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 140.09 resistance holds. The cross is in the third leg of the pattern from 145.68. Break of 137.71 will target 136.22 support next. On the upside, break



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EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7958. Upside of the consolidation should be limited by 0.8081 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.7958 will extend the larger decline from 0.8768 to 168.1% projection of 0.8584 to 0.8157 from 0.8399 at 0.7708, which is close to key long



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EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

EUR/CHF drops further as expected and touched mentioned 1.2140 support. Intraday bias remains on the downside. Break of 1.2140 should pave the way to 1.2103 low and below. And we'd expect strong support below 1.21 to contain downside and bring strong rebound. On the upside, above 1.2177 will turn bias



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AUD/USD - Attraction To Around 0.9425 Becoming Obsessive

In the last 12 hours or so the Australian dollar has surged higher and returned to the key 0.9425 level or thereabouts. Over the last few weeks the Australian dollar has made a significant push towards the key resistance level at 0.9425 and tried to get through. However, despite its



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Australia 200 – Reverses And Returns To Support At 5400

Yet again the Australia 200 Index is currently doing its best to rally higher and push back towards the resistance and key level at 5500, although in the early stages of this week it has fallen sharply back towards 5400 again. It has been relying upon support at the 5400



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GBP/USD – Pound Jumps On Rate Hike Expectations, Sharp US Data

The British pound has surged on Monday, gaining about 100 points on the day, as GBP/USD has broken above the 1.71 line in the North American session. On the release front, US Pending Home Sales soared last month, while British Net Lending to Individuals also improved in May.



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Daily Forex Update: EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the daily Falling Wedge chart pattern. EUR/USD is set to rise to the target level 1.3706 in the next 3 trading days. The pair recently broke above the resistance level 1.3677 (point (B)) – which should add to the bullish pressure



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RBA Preview: Eyes On Stevens' Statement

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has a policy meeting in Sydney today where it's widely expected to leave the official cash rate at a record low 2.5%. Since the bank last met economic data has been broadly mixed which fits with the RBA's neutral policy stance. This means the



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EM Rundown: Yuan-A See A Rally?

It may be a holiday-shortened week for US traders, but it won't be short on high-impact data from the G10. We've already mentioned the major reports out of the US and other developed markets (here, here, here), and in our opinion, these headlines may lead to quieter week in the



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EURGBP: Downtrend Set To Resume As Sterling Sparkles

After threatening for the past few weeks, the GBPUSD finally broke out to a conclusive 6-year high above the 1.70 level this morning and, with rates currently trading around 1.7100, the breakout appears likely to hold for now. Meanwhile, the EURUSD is also rallying on today's broad-based USD weakness, though



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USD/CAD: Will The Loonie Bounce Back This Week?

Following the recent sell-off, the USD/CAD has entered the upper end of a key technical area, namely 1.0560 to 1.0660. As can be seen from the weekly chart, 1.0660 was previously a major resistance level, so there's a good chance it could now turn into support. In addition, there are



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GBPJPY: Pound Gathers Strength

The pound is one of the top performers at the start of this week. After a few weeks of hovering around 1.70, it looks like it is breaking out to the upside, and GBPUSD closed the European session on Monday above 1.7100.



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US Dollar Gets Pollaxed As Low Volatility Aids Buyers. RBA Key For Aussie

Last nights USD catalyst is hard to fathom. It could have been the fact that EU inflation at 0.5%, as expected, wasn't terrible or it could have been San Francisco Fed President Williams comments that the Fed is on hold for 'some time' which – regardless of where the Euro



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Et Voila: World War Three

Authored by Howard J. Kunstler of Kunstler.com,


Whoever really runs things these days for the semi-mummified royal administration down in Saudi Arabia must be leaving skid-marks in his small-clothes thinking about Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his ISIS army of psychopathic killers sweeping hither and thither through what is again being quaintly called “the Levant.” ISIS just concluded an orgy of crucifixions up in Syria over the weekend, the victims being other Islamic militants who were not radical enough, or who had dallied with US support.


Crucifixion sends an interesting and complex message to various parties around this systemically fracturing globe. It’s a step back from the disabling horror of video beheadings, but it still packs a punch. For the Christian West, it re-awakens a certain central cultural narrative that had gone somnolent there for a century or so. ISIS’s message: If you thought the Romans were bad…. Among the human race, you see, the memories linger.


ISIS has successfully shocked the world over the last two weeks by negating eight years, several trillion dollars, and 4,500 battle deaths in the USA’s endeavor to turn Iraq into an obedient oil dispensary. Now they have gone and announced that their conquests of the moment amount to a Caliphate, that is, an Islamic theocracy. In that sense, they are at least out-doing America’s Republican Party, which has been trying to do something similar here from sea to shining sea but finds itself thwarted by hostile blue states on both coasts.


More to the point, the press (another quaint term, I suppose) is not paying any attention whatsoever to what goes down with ISIS and the other states besides Iraq and Syria in the region. I aver to Saudi Arabia especially because Americans seem to regard it as an impregnable bastion against the bloodthirsty craziness spreading over the rest of the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia is, of course, the keystone of OPEC. Saudi Arabia has had the distinction of remaining stable through all the escalating tumult of recent decades, reliably pumping out its roughly 10 million barrels a day like Bossy the cow in America’s oil import barn.


Or seeming to remain stable, I should say, because the Saud family royal administration of mummified rulers and senile princes looks more and more like a Potemkin monarchy every month. 90-year-old King Abdullah has been rumored to be on life support lo these last two years, his successor brothers already dead and gone, and other powerful Arabian clans with leaders who can walk across a room and speak itching to kick this zombie Saud family off the throne. To make matters worse, the Sauds have also managed to sponsor much of the organized Sunni terrorism in the region (around the world, really) in their role as the chief enemy of the Shia ­— as represented by the politicized clergy of Iran.


Things are happening at lightning speed over in the region and beware of how the turmoil spreads from one flashpoint to another. This would be an opportunity for ISIS to put the Saud family on the spot regarding the just-announced Caliphate — as in the question: who really calls the shots for this new theocratic kingdom? (Answer: maybe not you, doddering, mummified, America suck-up Saudi Arabia). What’s more, what happens to the other kingdoms and rickety states in that corner of the world? For instance, Lebanon, which has been a sort of political demolition derby for three decades. The founder of the group al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), pre-cursor to ISIS, was the Lebanese Abu Mus‘ab al-Zarqawi — blown up in a USA air strike some years ago. Lebanon has been under the sway of Hezbollah for a decade and Hezbollah is sponsored by Shi’ite Iran, making it an enemy of ISIS. Might ISIS roll westward over Hezbollah now to capture the pearl of the Mediterranean (or what’s left of it) Beirut? I wouldn’t be surprised.


Then there’s Jordan, and it’s youngish King Abdullah, another notorious USA ass-kisser. Those crucifixion photos coming out of Syria must be making him a little loose in the bowels. And, of course, Syria, where this whole thing started, is a smoldering rump-roast of a state. And finally, that bugbear in the bull’s-eye of the old Levant: Israel.


It is miraculous that Israel has managed so far to stay out of the way of this juggernaut. Of course, among its chief enemies are Hezbollah and Hezbollah’s foster father, Iran, which happen to be the enemy of ISIS and, of course, in that part of the world the enemy of my enemy is my ally — though, I’m sorry, it’s rather impossible to imagine Israel getting all chummy with the psychopaths of ISIS. One thing is a fact: all other things being equal, Israel has the capability of turning any other state or kingdom in region into an ashtray, if push came to shove. Voila: World War Three.











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EUR/USD Approaches 1.37

EUR/USD has gotten even closer to a cluster of resistances at 1.3700/1.3669. After testing this supply area the currency pair is expected to decline and then probe one of the key supports at 1.35, which consists of the monthly S1 and 2013 low. And even though the monthly technical indicators



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GBP/USD Stalls At 1.7044

The bullish pressure does not allow the Cable to retreat. However, at the same time the currency pair is unable to push through the resistance at 1.7044—the 2009 high. If it does manage to cross this level, there will be a good opportunity for the price to reach 1.74. Alternatively,



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USD/JPY Probes 101.20

USD/JPY decisively breached the up-trend support line and then moved rapidly towards 101.20 last week. For there to be a chance of a rally, this level should withstand the selling pressure, as it did earlier this year on several occasions. But while the monthly technical studies are pointing upwards, the



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USD/CHF Breaks 55-Day SMA

The U.S. Dollar broke away from the 200-day SMA and closed below the 55-day SMA, meaning the current downward momentum is unlikely to subside any time soon. Still, there are significant supports nearby that could weaken the bears, such as the monthly PP at 0.8895/81 and 100-day SMA at 0.8870/67.



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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, the consolidation pattern from 0.8698 is likely completed at 0.9036. Deeper fall should be seen back to 0.8698/8702 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8956 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 0.9036 will



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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Deeper decline is expected in USD/JPY with 101.87 resistance intact. Current fall from 102.79 will target 100.65/82 key support level. The larger fall from 105.41 could be resuming and decisive break of 100.65 will confirm. More importantly, such development will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 101.87 will



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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

With 1.0751 resistance intact, near term outlook in USD/CAD remains bearish. Current fall from 1.1278 would extend towards 1.0608 key support level. At this point, we're still viewing such fall from 1.1278 as a correction. Thus, we'd expect strong support from 1.0608 to contain downside and bring reversal. On the



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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6975

Cable's retreat after faltering below last week's high of 1.7052 has retained our view that further consolidation below resistance at 1.7063 would be seen and a test of the lower Kumo (now at 1.7002) cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal the rebound from 1.6952 has



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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

AUD/USD weakens mildly today and is staying in range below 0.9446. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9321 will indicate that the sideway pattern from 0.9460 has started another falling leg and will turn bias to the downside for 0.9210 and below. In that case, strong



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Loonie Extends Gains Pre-GDP, EUR, AUD Wait For Policy Verdict

The FX markets made a flat start; a data/event-full week is ahead of us. USD/JPY and JPY crosses traded mixed in Tokyo as industrial production estimate in May printed slower-than-expected expansion, the housing starts in May dropped by 15% in May (vs. -10.5% exp. -3.3% last). USD/JPY advanced to



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Daily Report: Euro Stays Weak ahead of Inflation Data

Dollar and euro are set to be the weakest major currencies in June. Euro will first face the test from inflation data again while dollar will face tests from ISM indices and employment data later in the week. Eurozone CPI is expected to rise from 0.5% yoy to 0.6% yoy



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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Stand aside

Euro's rebound from 1.3576 turned out to be stronger than expected and broke above last week's high of 1.3651, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the erratic rise from 1.3512 to extend gain to previous resistance at 1.3677, break there would extend the rebound from 1.3503 low for a



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