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Friday, October 31, 2014

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

The strong rebound in GBP/JPY last week suggests that pull back from 180.70 has completed at 168.01 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 180.70 first. Break will extend the larger up trend to next long term fibonacci level of 183.96. On the downside, break of 174.63



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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY surged sharply in response to BoJ's surprised easing. The development suggests consolidation pattern from 145.68 has completed at 134.13 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 141.21 resistance first. Break will target a test on 145.68 next. On the downside, break of 138.03 support is needed



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EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

The downside acceleration in EUR/GBP and break of 0.7849 minor support indicates that rebound from 0.7766 is finished at 0.8046 already. More importantly, as the cross is staying well inside the medium term falling channel, the down trend might be still in progress. Initial bias is now on the downside



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EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF lost much downside momentum ahead of 1.2052 support and stayed in sideway trading last week. Nonetheless, recovery was weak and the cross is limited below 1.2079 minor resistance so far. Thus, deeper decline is still expected for 1.2044 low and below. In that case, we'd expect strong support from



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BoJ Eases Again Despite Positive Growth in Q3

Monthly economic data through September indicate that real GDP growth in Japan rebounded into positive territory in the third quarter following its tax-hike-induced swoon in Q2. The Japanese economy should continue to grow in coming quarters. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) agrees with this assessment, but it surprised market participants



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Central Bank Roundup: The Aftermath of Policy Changes at the Fed, BoJ and RBNZ

It was a busy week for central banks around the world, with monetary policy meetings in the US, NZ and Japan. This made for a very interesting end to the week for the FX markets as investors digested the deluge of information coming from policymakers. The lingering impact of these



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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

Despite recent volatility in financial markets and renewed concerns of disinflation, the FOMC announced an end to its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries, or QE3, this week. In the meeting's statement, the FOMC indicated it is somewhat less concerned about the degree of labor underutilization, removing the characterization of



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The Weekly Bottom Line

The end has finally come for quantitative easing (QE), at least in America. After expanding its balance sheet by over $3.5 trillion, mainly through purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities (MBS), this week the Federal Reserve announced the program's end. While the Fed will continue to rollover maturing securities,



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Weekly Focus: Riksbanken and Bank of Japan Surprised

The surprise Bank of Japan move gives support to risk assets. Pressure is rising on the ECB to follow but it will take time for it to act. The hawkish Fed and dovish Bank of Japan give new fuel to USD/JPY. Focus turns to the US next week ISM to give more



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Week in FX Americas - Loonie Bleeds On Growth Risks

It was too good to be true for the loonie. With commodities under pressure it has been somewhat of an aberration to see commodity and interest rate sensitive currencies like the AUD, NZD and CAD holding it together for so long. While gold, crude, and other natural resources have been taking



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Week in FX Europe - Bank of Japan and Fed Pressure ECB Both Ways

The results of the European Banking Authority (EBA) stress tests were published on Sunday and so began a hard week for the EUR. Twenty four banks failed the stress tests, with Italian banks on the spotlight as nine found themselves on the black list. There is a 25 billion capital



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Week in FX Asia - BOJ Pulls a Trick and Treats Global Markets

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) surprise stimulus announcement jolted the market on Halloween day. By dropping no hints of imminent action, and instead playing down doubts over Japan's economic price prospects, has allowed the BoJ to spring the biggest of Halloween surprises. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda likes to shock, as he



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10/31/2014 - Central Bank Roundup: The Aftermath of Policy Changes at the Fed, BoJ and RBNZ

* Central Bank Roundup: The Aftermath of Policy Changes at the Fed, BoJ and RBNZ

* Market Movers: Weekly Technical Outlook

* Look Ahead: Equities

* Look Ahead: Commodities

* Global Data Highlights



It was a busy week for central banks around the world, with monetary policy meetings in the US, NZ and Japan. This made for a very interesting end to the week for the FX markets as investors digested the deluge of information coming from policymakers. The lingering impact of these game-changing meetings, and possibility of fireworks in this week's policy meeting in Europe as well, may continue to influence investor sentiment for some time to come as the market reassesses prior assumptions about the trajectory of monetary policy in these countries.



In the US, the Fed ended its third round of quantitative easing by tapering asset purchases by their final $15bn and released a somewhat more hawkish statement than the market was expecting. The bank noted that labor market conditions have improved somewhat, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate...Full text »




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RANsquawk - Weekly Wrap - 31st October 2014

The Next Time The BIS Wants To Warn About Monetary Kool-Aid, Bubbles, Lack Of Liquidity Or Complacency...

We have a modest proposal to the Bank of International Settlements, aka the "central banks' central bank": the next time you feel like warning the general public about monetary Kool-Aid such as:



"low volatility everywhere" or that asset prices are at "elevated" levels



... as you did just 6 weeks ago, or that:



"it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally", that "despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions" and that "the temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere"



... as you cautioned in June 2014, or, best of all, musing whether:



"central banks [can] now really do “whatever it takes”? As each day goes by, it seems less and less likely... [seven] years have passed since the eruption of the global financial crisis, yet robust, self-sustaining, well balanced growth still eludes the global economy"



... as you said in June 2013, perhaps you should discuss these asset-bubble, complacency, volatility-crushing, impotent-central banking concerns with its Board of Directors first?












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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9545

Although the greenback surged again to 0.9663 in NY morning, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.9600 and possibly 0.9580 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon yesterday's low at 0.9544 would contain downside and bring another upmove later, above said intra-day resistance would extend gain



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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5900

Although cable has remained under pressure and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.6184 to extend weakness to 1.5920-22 (50% projection of 1.6183-1.5951 measuring from 1.6039), loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5895-00 (61.8% projection) and bring rebound later. Above 1.6010-15 would bring recovery



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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2630

Euro's intra-day breach of support at 1.2501 confirms recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.2470 would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2450 today, risk from there has increased for a corrective rebound to take place soon, above the Kijun-Sen



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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Buy at 111.10

As the greenback has continued to surged after resuming medium term uptrend, bullishness remains for further gain to 112.50-60 would be seen, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 112.75-80 and reckon 113.00 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a minor correction, below the Tenkan-Sen



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Obama Speaks On The Economy - Live Feed

The S&P hits a record high thank to a few hundred billion in more money printing by a central bank, and guess who pops up to take credit for the market, pardon, the economy?


This guy.












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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7800

As the single currency has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting the decline from 0.8047 is still in progress and near term downside risk remains for weakness to 0.7815-20, however, as long as recent low at 0.7766 holds, prospect of another rebound remains, above this week's high at 0.7913 would



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Canadian August GDP Unexpectedly Drops 0.1%

Growth in August was expected to be held back by indications of weakening manufacturing activity. Such was confirmed in today's report with this component of GDP declining by 1.2%. This fully reversed the 1.2% increase recorded in July. The weakness was abetted by a drop in the motor vehicle parts



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US Personal Spending Edged Down 0.2% in September

PCE edged downward by 0.2% in September 2014, thereby disappointing market expectations for a 0.1% increase following unrevised readings of 0.5% and flat in August and July, respectively. The decline was largely due to a 2.0% drop in durables spending, which almost fully retraced a 2.1% gain in August, both



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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1265

Current rally signals the wave iv correction from 1.1386 has ended at 1.1122 earlier this week and upside bias is seen for a retest of this recent high, however, break of this wave iii top is needed to confirm upmove has resumed in wave v for the rise from 1.0660



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US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency fell again to fresh 2-year low in NY morning on dollar's broad-based strength, bids from 1.2540 down to 1.2500 together with stops below 1.2495-00 were tripped, however, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.2470 and 1.2450. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2540, 1.2590-00



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Thursday, October 30, 2014

USD/JPY: Bank Of Japan Boosts Stimulus

The pair is expected to find support at 108.94, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.53. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.89.



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USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9537, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9506. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9605, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9642.



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USD/CAD: Loonie Trading Higher Ahead Of The Canadian GDP Data

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1161, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1132. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1222, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1254.



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Daily Technical Analysis

The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2545 but closed higher at 1.2611. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.2500. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2630/50. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays



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Asian Market Update: Japan CPI Slows Further Ahead Of BOJ Growth Projections And GPIF ...

Australia's Macquarie was up over 2% and ANZ up slightly after reporting H1 and FY results respectively. MQG posted H1 Net A$678M v A$645Me and ROE rose nearly 400bps to 12.5%, with interim dividend up 30% y/y. ANZ FY14 was Net A$7.1B v A$6.9Be, though NIMs fell 9bps to 2.13



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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

THE EURO closed lower on Thursday. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing



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The Daily Forecaster: GBPUSD

As with the Continentals the downtrend extended more directly than I had expected to reach 1.5950. The 1.6038 highshould now hold for losses to extend down to (around) the 1.5950 low and after a correction to 1.5910-15 minimum. From this point take care. There are valid projections at 1.5910-15 and



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Market Morning Briefing

The Euro (1.2598) hasn't really added to its loss till now but the target of 1.25 remains unchanged. The bearish momentum remains strong below our old resistance of 1.2780. The Pound (1.5989) suffered from a false breakout this week, suggesting the importance of 1.6200-30 as the major resistance now and



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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for 1.2500 support. Break will Break will extend the larger fall from 1.3993 for 1.2042 low next. Above, 1.2770 minor resistance will extend the consolidation fro 1.2500 with another rise. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.2994 to



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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for 1.5876 low. Break will extend the decline from 1.7190 and to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. In any case, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6226 resistance holds and downside breakout is expected. However, break



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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 0.9688 resistance. Break will extend that larger rise from 0.8698 towards 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 0.9441 support will extend the correction from 0.9668. But in that case, we'd continue to expect strong support inside 0.9300/9395 support zone



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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 110.08 resistance first. Break will extend the larger up trend to next long term fibonacci level at 111.62. On the downside, break of 107.60 support will argue that rebound from 105.19 has completed and will bring another fall to extend the



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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as the consolidation from 0.8642 continues. In case of another recovery, we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9401 to 0.8642 at 0.8932. Break of 0.8642 will extend the larger decline to next long term fibonacci level at 0.8544.



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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

USD/CAD's consolidation from 1.1385 is still in progress and deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But still, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.1081 support holds and another rise is expected. Above 1.1254 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1385. Break will extend



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Daily Report: Equities Boosted by US GDP, Dollar Firm

US equities jumped sharply overnight as boosted by the stronger than expected GDP report, which showed 3.5% annualized growth comparing to consensus of 2.9%. DJIA rose further 221.11 pts, or 1.3% to close at 17951.42, comparing to record high of 17350.64 made in September. S&P 500 rose 12.35 pts, or



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I Pledge Allegiance...

Submitted by The Dissident Dad via Mike Krieger's Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,


Remember those weird kids who didn’t say the Pledge of Allegiance in school? They either sat down or just stood up silently. I sure do. Most likely for religious reasons, but I remember thinking to myself as a kid that it was wrong not to say the pledge aloud with the rest of us. As I got older in my teenage years, I even felt that those kids were not being respectful.


Some adults may even give them the old, “well, if you don’t like it then you can leave” routine that is mentioned every time a minority opts out of the majority’s way of doing things.


Homeschooling my children will really make this a non-issue; however, my nieces were reciting the American Pledge of Allegiance the other day while playing with my children. In fact, here in Texas the kids recite both the American and Texas Pledge of Allegiance before class.


After hearing them recite it, and of course remembering the 2,500 or so times I said it in my lifetime, I started to think about the purpose and real meaning of this pledge that millions of school-aged children recite every morning Monday through Friday.


A pledge, of course, is a vow, an oath, or a commitment. Allegiance is defined as loyalty, devotion, and obedience. In fact, the antonyms for allegiance are treachery and disloyalty.


Crazy when you think about it, right? Do we really want our kids pledging obedience and loyalty to the U.S. federal government? Especially when the pledge itself is masked with a lie. I mean, it ends with, “with liberty and justice for all.” Now that’s a crock of shit right there. Not one arrest in the financial sector for the 2008 crisis, not one investigation into the 2003 Iraq invasion where no WMDs were found, and a complete cover-up of the events on 9/11, i.e., Building 7. Liberty and justice for all… how about we ask Edward Snowden about that? His patriotic actions were described as treachery and disloyalty.


Nationalism and blind patriotism is crucial in keeping a population dumbed-down and ignorant , which is why if you think about it, pledging allegiance to the government we have today is truly a backwards thing to do. Teaching it to a small child is particularly degrading.


As a dad who is proud of my own liberty, this makes life tough sometimes. Do I teach my kids the truth or go with the flow?


On the surface it seems black and white, but it’s not. Teaching your children about certain truths that make them the odd kid out is not exactly what a parent wants for their child. My wife and I are constantly turning to each other and asking ourselves, should we make a stand on this? Because if we do, it might make it hard for the kids.


A great example comes from a friend of mine with an 11-year-old son who stood up on 9/11 at school and countered the teacher’s lesson for the anniversary and told her about the Loose Change version. It was awkward to say the least. To simply question the events of 9/11 go against the state’s religion of nationalism, so for an 11-year-old boy to bring it up in a classroom…you can imagine the trouble it caused.


Teaching my children about the oligarchs and the current state of our leaders in government is not something that I take lightly. I realize that some of our core values, like the belief in liberty, respect for all life, and individual sovereignty will make them the odd kid out sometimes.


Being surrounded by people who have been taught, just as I was, to pledge allegiance to the state, is the unfortunate reality we are all confronted with. something that is so deeply engrained that the best I can do is teach my children to think for themselves and decide on their own. Figuring out how to best teach my children the danger of such blind allegiance is without a doubt the most difficult task I face as a father.











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Gold, Important Bottoming ?

In the Oct 21st email, said that risk was rising for at least a week of downside, and the market has indeed tumbled since that day's high at $1255. In the big picture, again approaching that longer term, key support in the $1175/90 area (base of the huge triangle since



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Australia 200 – Threatening To Return To Above 5500 Again

Throughout most of September the Australia 200 Index declined strongly from its multi-year high after running into resistance around 5650 back to enter its previously established trading range between 5400 and 5500, before falling further below 5200 and to an eight month low around 5120 a couple of weeks ago.



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Japan Likely To Miss Its Inflation Target

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won his nation's elections in late 2012 with bold promises. One of those promises was that the Japanese economy would roar back to life, ending two decades of deflation. He promised a 2% inflation rate in a two-year time span. As that deadline lurches closer,



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GBP/USD – Pound Stabilizes After Sharp Drop

GBP/USD is showing limited movement on Thursday, as the pair trades just above the 1.60 level in North American trade. On the release front, the sole British event was Nationwide HPI. The housing indicator posted a gain of 0.5% and met expectations. In the US, Advance GDP posted a strong



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USD/CAD – Limited Movement As US Posts Solid GDP

The Canadian dollar is stable on Thursday, as USD/CAD trades just shy of the 1.12 line in the North American session. On the release front, US GDP posted a strong gain of 3.5% in Q3, while Unemployment Claims showed little change, coming in at 287 thousand. There are no Canadian



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AUDUSD - Declines, Targets Further Downside

AUDUSD Having failed to hold on to its intraday gains and turning lower on Wednesday, further downside is envisaged. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8700 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.8650 level and then the 0.8600 level where a violation will set



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BoJ Preview: No Change Expected… Yet

The BoJ isn't expected to alter policy at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting later today. The bank will release its latest 3-year forecasts for economic growth and consumer prices. This will provide the market will an insight into the bank's future plans for monetary policy. A significant lowering



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North American Wrap: The Greek Canary In The Coal Mine

Investors in North America have got to be feeling pretty high on the hog of late as everything seems to be coming up roses for the US and its economy. Yesterday saw the Federal Reserve taper the last part of Quantitative Easing while sounding fairly optimistic about the future, and



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What Does USDRUB Have In Common With A Thanksgiving Turkey?

In 2007, Nassim Nicholas Taleb published his revolutionary book 'The Black Swan' about the eponymous theory, which posits that rare, unpredicatble events have a massive impact and can only be rationalized after the fact. Taleb's most iconic example of a black swan event comes from the perspective of a Thanksgiving turkey.



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EUR/USD: Quantifiably Engaging

It has been an eventful 24 hours in the trading realm following a veritable lack of activity to start the week thanks in large part to a couple of central bank meetings and some telling data about both European and US economies. As covered extensively yesterday (here and here), the



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