11:34 PM No Comments

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY's recovery was limited at 171.45 last week, by 4 hours 55 EMA. Subsequent fall pushed the cross through 167.76 support and resumed the decline from 174.84. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 166.57 support first. Outlook in GBP/JPY isn't too bearish yet. But sustained



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EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

11:34 PM No Comments

EUR/JPY's fall from 145.68 extended last week and reached as low as 137.50. Initial bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. The break of the near term channel suggests downside acceleration. Also, the strong break of 55 days carries bearish implication. Deeper fall would be seen back to 135.50



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EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

11:17 PM No Comments

EUR/GBP's decline from 0.8305 extended lower last week and the development dampened the bullish case. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside for a test on 0.8164 key cluster support again. At this point, we're holding on to the view that strong support should be seen at 0.8164 cluster to



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EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

11:17 PM No Comments

EUR/CHF's recovery faced strong resistance from 4 hours 55 EMA last week and completed at 1.2297. Fall from 1.2393 then extend to as low as 1.2210. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1.2165 support. Current development argues that whole decline from 1.2649 is resuming. And break of



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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

10:22 PM No Comments

Real GDP posted its second consecutive quarterly above-trend gain in the fourth quarter, rising at a 3.2 annual percent pace. Dating back to the beginning of the real GDP data series, isolated back-to-back increases in real GDP data are rare (only three to date). There are really only two things



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The Weekly Bottom Line

10:22 PM No Comments

Emerging markets (EMs) remained top-of-mind this week. Investors accelerated the process of pulling money from developing economies, with money fleeing to the U.S. dollar and developed market (DM) debt. The outflows and ensuing volatility was not unexpected. The process began six months ago with the first bout of taper-talk and



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Has the Market Turmoil Passed?

10:04 PM No Comments

This is the big question for investors as we wait for some key event risks this week. Last week's sell off in emerging markets triggered losses elsewhere as investors rotated out of risky assets and into safe havens. The panic started in FX markets and then spread to equity and



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USDCAD Rebuffed by Long-Term 50% Retracement... Sees Key Employment Reports Next Week

9:28 PM No Comments

Shortly after the Canadian November GDP and US December Personal income & spending data was released this morning, USDCAD tested the long-term 50% retracement around 1.1230 and failed, falling over 130 pips over the next 4 hours, before finding an intraday bottom. That said, while weekly RSI is clearly in



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AUDNZD Correction Ensues... All Eyes on 1.0910/15 ahead of RBA Next Week

9:28 PM No Comments

On Wednesday we highlighted how the technical and fundamental backdrop for AUDNZD could lead to a larger correction over the coming days As AUDNZD saw a Morning Star formation & daily RSI saw two bullish divergences, followed by a break above corresponding trendline resistance prior to price and the



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EUR/JPY: Will the Pullback Last?

9:28 PM No Comments

It isn't pretty out there in financial circles this morning in North America as a combination of negative news from overseas as well as disappointing earnings is reversing yesterday's gains in equities and giving strength to the safe haven currencies of USD and JPY. On the equity side of the



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Week In FX Americas - Loonie Woes Continue Despite Growth

9:10 PM No Comments

Canada's November's growth number on Friday hit expectations of a +0.2% monthly gain. On the face of it all looked fine, however, the sub-indices happened to push the CAD to a new intraday low. The energy sector reported its usual strength, but both the manufacturing and agriculture categories declined and



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Week In FX Europe - Can Draghi Defend His Deflation Views With Gusto Again?

9:10 PM No Comments

Deflation remains the ECB's nemesis and the pressure has piled again on Euro policy makers after Friday's disappointing headline consumer price print. The annual rate of inflation for the 18-members that share the single currency, the EUR, fell to a new record low in January, with flash CPI, y/y falling



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Week In FX Asia - EM Woes Go Beyond Tapering And Soft China Data

9:10 PM No Comments

This weeks Emerging Markets FX landscape bore witness to some extreme price action moves, well beyond the "Fragile Five" that will surely have convinced many investors to contemplate cutting exposure to the region even further. The EM price movement is not just about the Fed's tapering plans investors are also



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TOKE-A-BOWL 2014

8:17 PM No Comments

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EUR/USD Plunges 100 Pips

12:29 AM No Comments

Although we were expecting a more gradual descent, EUR/USD did breach the support at 1.3659/44 as intended and in the next moment pierced through the 100-day SMA. As a result, the Euro reached the monthly S1 yesterday and may therefore take a short break before resuming the decline, even though



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GBP/USD Is At Key Support

12:29 AM No Comments

GBP/USD has fallen through the weekly PP and 2011 highs in order to once again test firmness of the up-trend support line at 1.6477/21. In case this demand area is violated, we would not expect the monthly S1 and the 100-day SMA to be able to stop the ensuing sell-off.



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USD/JPY Fails To Leave 102.04/101.62

12:29 AM No Comments

Even though the support at 102.04 provides a fair amount of buoyancy for USD/JPY, the currency pair remains unable to surpass the resistance at 102.90/78. Nevertheless, the long-term bias towards the U.S. Dollar stays bullish, partially due to technical indicators on the weekly chart and partially due to the fact



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USD/CHF Challenges 0.9033/29

12:28 AM No Comments

Despite prevalence of 'sell' signals on the weekly and monthly charts, the support at 0.8945 proved to be a tough level, as it prevented an extension of a dip and managed to restore a bullish momentum. Right now the pair is trying to overcome the 100-day SMA at 0.9029, and,



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EUR/USD Heading For 2014 Low

12:28 AM No Comments

Yesterday, EUR/USD was under pressure due to dollar strength and euro weakness. Especially a lower than expected German inflation provided a good excuse to send the pair lower. USD/JPY made only a limited progress even as US equities rebounded sharply. Today to focus is on the EMU inflation. A low



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EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

11:52 PM No Comments

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside and deeper fall could be seen back to 0.8164 key support level. At this point, we're holding on the view that strong support should be seen at 0.8164 cluster to finish the consolidation pattern from 0.8806. Above 0.8305 will turn bias



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The Time Has Not Come Yet For RBNZ

11:52 PM No Comments

The kiwi was poised to rocket after the RBNZ meeting, where policymaker were expected not to raise interest rates, but at least provide some hawkish comments. On the contrary, the NZD/USD pair plunged below the important support level at 0.8205 and on Thursday was heading to 0.8150. The next level



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EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

11:52 PM No Comments

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. The decline from 1.2393 is still in progress. Current development argues that whole fall form 1.2649 is possibly resuming for another low below 1.2165. On the upside, break of 1.2297 is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook



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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

11:17 PM No Comments

EUR/USD's decline continues today and the development now suggest that recovery from 1.3507 was a correction and has finished at 1.3739 already. Fall from 1.3892 is possibly resuming. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.3507 first. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2755 to 1.3892 at 1.3458.



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Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

11:17 PM No Comments

EUR/USD Today's support: - 1.3519 and 1.3500(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3486, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3468. Break of the latter would result in 1.3437. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3416.



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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

11:17 PM No Comments

GBP/USD's consolidation pattern from 1.6667 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 1.6309 support holds and another rally is still expected. Above 1.6667 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4813 to 1.6259 from 1.5853 at 1.6747, which is



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Daily FX Report

11:17 PM No Comments

The USD headed for a weekly gain versus a basket of its most traded counterparts before data forecast to show that Americans increased spending for an eighth month, adding to evidence the U.S. economy is growing. Economists expect that U.S. consumer spending will rise 0.2 percent in December, following a



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Daily Technical Analysis

11:17 PM No Comments

The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday after broke below 1.3600 and hit 1.3539 earlier today. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 1.3500 – 1.3400 and the daily EMA 200. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3560. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone



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USD/CHF Daily Outlook

11:17 PM No Comments

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8903 continues today but again, it's viewed as a correction pattern only. And intraday bias remains neutral. Overall, we're holding on to the view that rebound from 0.8799 should have completed at 0.9156 already. Fall from there is expected to extend lower. Below 0.0.8935 minor support will



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Scotland Independence Impact On Pound

11:17 PM No Comments

Amid heating debates over Scotland's independence the BoE Governor Mark Carney has made a first visit to the north of the borders since taking office in July. According to the latest poll, conducted by the ICM, around 46% of the population will vote in favour of Scotland's independence during the



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Japan Retail Sales Rose, Albeit Slower

11:17 PM No Comments

The world's third largest economy is expected to gain momentum ahead of the upcoming tax hike that can dampen all the efforts by Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda. Therefore, private and business consumption is likely to rise, as households and companies could be showing willingness to spend more cash on



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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

11:17 PM No Comments

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Fall from 105.41 is expected resume sooner lor later and below 101.76 will target 100.61 key support next. Break there will have larger bearish implications and confirm medium term topping at 105.41. Meanwhile, break of 103.44 will argue that the decline from 105.41 might have finished.



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Eurozone Unemployment To Hold At 12.1%, CPI Data Eyed Amid Deflation Fears

11:17 PM No Comments

European Macroeconomic agenda cools off the end of the week, but the Eurozone`s flash consumer prices for November and October unemployment rate will definitely be worth watching.



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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

11:17 PM No Comments

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.8887 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and deeper decline is expected. Below 0.8695 temporary low will extend the larger decline to 61.8% projection of 0.9757 to 0.8821 from 0.9085 at 0.8507, which is close to next long term



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USD/CAD Daily Outlook

11:16 PM No Comments

USD/CAD lost some upside momentum but there is no sign of topping yet Current rally should extend to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.1235. We'd be cautious on topping around there on bearish divergence conditio in 4 hours MACD. Meanwhile, break of 1.1031 will indicate that a short term



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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

11:16 PM No Comments

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 167.76 support. Break will resume the correction from 174.84 and would target 166.57 support and below. Meanwhile above 171.45 will turn focus back to 173.65/174.84 resistance zone instead.



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Euro Down On Weak German Inflation

10:59 PM No Comments

It was expected that the weaker-than-expected German inflation data would have significant bearish impact on the Euro, as weak inflationary pressure will put pressure on the central bank to boost growth. On Thursday, bears pushed the most traded pair significantly lower, with EUR/USD falling back to 1.357 from 1.3658 a



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Is U.S. Economy Strong Enough?

10:59 PM No Comments

Thursday's GDP and jobless claims reports were projected to have a modest impact on market's movement, even despite the fact that they give an insight on what is happening with the key labour market and at what pace the economy is developing. It seems that the Federal Reserve was already



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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

10:59 PM No Comments

EUR/JPY's decline continues today and reaches as low as 138.66 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 138.45. Break will put 135.50 key support level in focus. At this point, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. But sustained trading below the 55 days EMA, or



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Daily Report: Yen Mildly Higher, Japan Inflation Hits Five Year High

10:59 PM No Comments

DOW managed to recover overnight and closed higher by 109.82 pts, or 0.7% at 15848.61. But the mildly positive sentiment wasn't carried through to Asia. Japanese Nikkei is losing -190 pts, or -1.27%, at the timing of writing, trading below 15,000 handle again. Asian markets are relatively quiet elsewhere with



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Asian Market Update: Japan PMI Hits Multi-Year High

10:59 PM No Comments

NZD currency was in focus among the majors NZD/USD rose over 30pips as high as 0.8180 after the New Zealand trade data before falling below $0.8130 in the afternoon session. Comments from RBNZ Gov Wheeler and general retreat in risk-on sentiment weighed on the kiwi as well as AUD,



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EUR/USD: Greenback Extends Gain On Strong US GDP Data

10:59 PM No Comments

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3507, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3467. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3622, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3697.



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GBP/USD: Sterling Continues To Trade Lower This Morning

10:59 PM No Comments

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6422, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6373. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6543, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6615.



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AUD/USD: Aussie Trading Lower This Morning, Eyes On Next Week's RBA Rate Decision

10:59 PM No Comments

The pair is expected to find support at 0.8713, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8662. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8820, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8876.



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USD/JPY: Japanese Consumer Prices Rose At Sharpest Rate In Over Five Years In December

10:59 PM No Comments

The pair is expected to find support at 102.04, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 101.66. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 102.88, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 103.33.



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USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Trading Flat In The Asian Session

10:59 PM No Comments

The pair is expected to find support at 0.8974, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8920. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9065, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9102.



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USD/CAD: Trading Above Its MAs

10:23 PM No Comments

The pair is expected to find support at 1.115, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1123. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1202, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1227.



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The Daily Wave Analysis

10:23 PM No Comments

After a strong move up, the EURUSD broke the bull flag pattern (orange lines) to the downside. Therefore, the wave count has been removed and a new count is pending. This depends whether price will bounce off of the daily support (magenta line) or not.



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AUDUSD: Targeting 0.850 On Primary Trend

9:11 PM No Comments

In the previous analysis my question of "is the bullish correction nearing an end" was answered a lot faster than I had expected as price accelerated towards the 0.8865 lows. At this point I thought we would continue to accelerate south (just as AUDNZD had previously) only to see this



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Market Morning Briefing

7:58 PM No Comments

The Dollar Index (81.07) rose sharply while remaining inside the broader range of 79.70-81.50. But all the rallies and drops inside this contracting range can be ignored as any significant major move would be expected only beyond the broader range of 79.70-81.50.



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Asian Session Notes

7:04 PM No Comments

Gold saw a big sell-off Thursday pushing under the daily EMA lines and dragging indicators into a confluence of bears with stochastic heading for the over areas while macd has a new bear cross. Note overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. Recall we are in a



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EUR/USD - Drops Sharply To One Week Low Around 1.3550

6:46 PM No Comments

For the best part of the last month the Australian dollar has established and traded within a narrow range roughly between 0.88 and the recent resistance level at 0.90. However for the last couple of weeks the Australian dollar has fallen sharply back down to the support level at 0.88



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