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Wednesday, January 1, 2014

USD/CAD - 2013 In Review

The Canadian dollar looked sharp as we began 2013, but struggled badly late in the year, as the currency lost about five cents against the US dollar in Q4. The Canadian currency began the year close to the parity level, but tumbled to three-year lows in December, as USD/CAD broke



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USDJPY: Closes the Year Beneath 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance

The symmetrical triangle did cause a few headaches as it unravelled. But then this is typical of such a pattern as they are rarely ever textbook and stay nicely within your trendline. This then requires constant readjustment of the analysis and the risk of being whipsawed into unfortunate trades, and



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JPMorgan Presents "The Era Of Central Bank-Driven Equity Rallies"

Back in April, when the S&P500 was at 1580 we forecast that the price target on the S&P500 for the global central bank syndicate was 1900. The S&P closed the year at 1850, just barely missing said target, which was merely a function of the correlation between the stock market and the straight-line, diagonally expanding consolidated central banks' balance sheet (yes, it is a "market" for idiots, but such is life under central planning... while it lasts).


Incidentally, there was a time as recently as two years ago, when saying the Fed is merely propping up stocks, was blasphemous in polite economist circles. Since then even the most tenured economists (not to mention the US Treasury) have finally admitted the truth, and in the process none other than JPMorgan itself has just issued a chart titled "The era of central bank-driven equity rallies."



So in the spirit of the holidays, and since nobody even pretends anymore that Mr. Yellen's only mandate is to push stocks higher, will the Fed finally be kind enough to release a newsletter each morning laying out where the S&P will close that day? The Fed could use the monthly $29.95 subscription fees toward paying for Kevin Henry's et al Bloomberg terminal and REDI fee.






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Is The NSA Quartering “Digital” Troops Within Our Homes?

We have extensively documented that the U.S. government is trampling virtually every single Constitutional right set forth in the Bill of Rights.


One of the few rights which we thought the government still respects is the the 3rd Amendment, which prohibits the government forcing people to house troops:



No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.



But security expert Jacob Appelbaum notes that the NSA may be digitally violating the 3rd Amendment.


By way of background, this week Appelbaum was the main force behind an expose in Spiegel – and gave a must-watch talk – on the NSA’s systemic offensive programs to commandeer computers and computer systems, phone connections and phone systems, and communications networks of all types.


Appelbaum shows that the NSA has literally taken over our computer and our phones, physically intercepting laptop shipments and installing bugware before themselves shipping the laptop on to the consumer, installing special hardware that overcomes all privacy attempts, including “air gaps” (i.e. keep a computer unplugged from the Internet). Appelbaum also notes that spyware can suck up a lot of system resources on a computer or smartphone.


And he says this is the digital equivalent of soldiers being stationed in our houses against our will:



The parallel might not be as far-fetched as it may seem at first …


The NSA itself says that it’s in the middle of a massive cyber war. As such, malware, physical spying devices and offensive internet workarounds are literally the main troops in the NSA’s offensive cyber army.


Quartering meant that Colonial Americans had:



  • No control over when the British troops came and went



  • No say in what resources they consumed



  • And no privacy even in their own castles


Similarly, mass NSA spying means that modern day Americans have:



  • No control over when military presence comes or goes from our computer and phones (NSA is part of the Department of Defense)



  • No say in what resources the spies suck up (remember, Applebaum says that spying can use a lot of resources and harm performance)



  • And no privacy even in the deepest inner sanctuary of our electronic home base


Colonial Americans lost the quiet use and enjoyment of their homes. Modern Americans are losing the quiet use and enjoyment of our digital homes because the NSA is stationing digital “troops” inside our computers and phones.


Just as the Colonists’ homes were no longer theirs … our computers and phones are no longer ours.






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Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Case Shiller Index Rises At Fastest Annual Pace Since 2006; Detroit Home Prices Soaring 17.3%

Moments ago the October Case Shiller home price index was released which came largely as expected: the seasonally adjusted number rose by 1.05% in the month, which despite the collapse in mortgage applications, shows that cash still rules everything, as average home prices across the Composite 20 cities increased at a 13.63% annual clip, the highest since February 2006. Both were a fraction higher than the expected 0.95% and 13.50% M/M and Y/Y increases. On the more relevant NSA basis (according to the authors) however, the October increase was 0.18%, the lowest since January and an indication that the institutional "all cash" buying wave is finally fading.


Indeed, as can be seen on the chart below, the actual home price gains over the past three months have plateaued and absent another major push in early 2014 facilitating Wall Street's purchases of US real estate, it is very likely that this chart will once again resume trending lower.



And to show specifically just what the Case Shiller index tracks, here - once again - is an update on the housing market of bankrupt Detroit. In October prices rose 0.9% for the 8th consecutive monthly increase, and rose 17.3% from a year earlier. All is obviously well.







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What We Can Learn from 2013 as We Start a New Year...

It's always so quiet on the last trading day of the year, which is a perfect time to reflect on the market highs and lows of 2013. The list below includes the things that stood out to me the most in the last 12 months, why they were important and



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2013: the Best and Worst Performers vs. the USD

As you can see in the chart below, the dollar had a mixed performance versus the G10 in 2013. The dollar index (the USD versus its major trading partners) is virtually flat in the last 12 months. The EUR, CHF and GBP were the stand out performers, although gains were



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